By Paula Marcus

With the busy Christmas period around the corner, there is just about time to squeeze in one quick international break before all focus is on league positions and turkey. It really doesn’t seem that long ago that breaks for international matches were reserved for the top division, everyone else having to play unless three or more players were called up. Now Championship fans have to suffer along with our Premier League neighbours.

Even if the rules had not imposed a break, the strength of many Championship teams would still facilitate an enforced break due to the sheer number of players called up. At first glance I’m sure many less knowledgeable fans might assume that many of those players involved represent countries way down the FIFA rankings. Whilst a few players do come from countries you couldn’t even point to on a map, that’s not true in all cases. Even England is getting in on the party

OK, so there might not be any Championship players in the full England team (yet), but that doesn’t mean that players up and down the Football League aren’t pulling on the Three Lions. Championship players are very well represented in the Under-21 side, and have even been grabbing a few of the headlines from their higher placed colleagues.

First up in goal is Brighton and Hove Albion’s own (well at the moment Luton Town’s own) goalkeeper Christian Walton, who has previously represented England at both under-19 and under-20 levels. The last game against Bosnia and Herzegovina marked his debut at this level, and the 20 year old finished with a clean sheet, although he was rarely troubled.

The sole defensive call up from the Championship is Wolverhampton Wanderers Dominic Iorfa. The son of a Nigerian International, there was always high expectation Iorfa junior would play at a high level and he hasn’t disappointed. The central defender is strong in the air and comfortable on the ball, just the type of player England need.

He even caught the headlines the week before the Bosnia game with a showboating goal in training that had everyone talking. The only downside for England is that he is yet to declare which country he will play for at senior level, with his farther stating he will play for Nigeria. England must be hoping they are a little more persuasive.

Next up is a player that has represented England at every level, midfielder Isaac Hayden. After leaving Arsenal for Newcastle in the summer having not made a single Premier League start, Hayden has begun to hit his stride. In the Magpies last game against Cardiff City he had an impressive 76 touches and 81% pass completion, not bad for a player that hasn’t even hit 40 first team starts.

Hayden wasn’t the only player selected that opted to move to greener pastures over the summer. Former Chelsea midfielder John Swift signed for Reading after failing to build on his solitary start for the club. Since then he has been a revelation in Berkshire, and is already being talked about as a possible player of the seasons. Swift’s form for England has also benefitted, with the attack minded player scoring his second goal for his country, and his first for the under-21 team.

One player featuring for the youth side in need of no introduction is Jack Grealish. The Aston Villa playmaker only opted to play for England this season, having previously represented the Republic of Ireland. Unfortunately, so far, he has more headlines with his behaviour off the pitch than on it, with numerous controversies that even resulted in Villa owner Tony Xia tweeting his concern.

Even though Grealish has barely featured for Villa since September due to bans for on and off field antics, he has still managed to shine for England, picking up the man of the match against Bosnia. What is becoming clear is that he is an immense talent and, if Steve Bruce can get him to focus, he will become and asset for both England and Aston Villa.

Even though Grealish may have picked up the post game champagne, he wasn’t the only player to really shine in the last match. Bristol City’s on loan Striker Tammy Abraham scored twice in only his second game for the under-21 side, hitting the net for the second and fifth goals for England. He might technically be a Premier League player, but Abraham has certainly made his presence felt in the Championship, with nine goals in 16 games to go along with a player of the month award.

It’s not just on the pitch that the Championship is having a huge effect, but in the dugout too. Whilst manager Gareth Southgate is attempting to fix the mess that is the senior side, Aidy Boothroyd is keeping the under-21 side ticking over. Boothroyd is no stranger to the Football League, having started his managerial career with Championship Watford. He turned a side whose future looked likely to involve League One into Premier League newbies in just over 12 months. So Boothroyd might not have managed to keep them in the top flight, but he still was a success at the club.

Sadly playing youth football for England doesn’t guarantee a full call up will ever happen, but the fact that players from outside the Premier League are able to represent their country is still something  for the League to be proud of. What is really great about all these players is that they are playing regular football in a highly competitive league. Some have worked their way up through lower League teams, some have dropped down a division in search of first team football instead of constant loans or excessive bench times. It doesn’t mean they aren’t good enough for England, it just means they aren’t quite there yet.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

With a division as dynamic as the Championship, it seems that every week there is a story that deeply affects the league and the clubs that play in it. Over the past two weeks a number of smaller stories have appeared that have some implications when it comes to the state of the Football League, so here is the late breaking news from the world of Championship football. 

Football isn’t cheap (unless you support Burton Albion)

Every year the BBC conducts a study into the price of everything at a club, from tickets to tea, allowing for fans to realize just how overcharged they are compared to others in the division. Well last week they published their results, and there were some unpleasant surprises for the Championship. With the Premier League introducing a £30 price cap on away ticket prices (although it is worth noting no club has offered to go below that level), for the first time away tickets are more expensive in the Championship than in any other division.

That’s not to say everyone in the Championship is over charging. Reading’s attempt to convince others to follow their ‘twenty’s plenty’ pledge has resulted in just one club, Cardiff City, following suit, and even then it was just reciprocal pricing for the visit of Reading. So to the rest of the division that have chosen not to drop your prices, especially for Reading fans, a big two finger salute. It is worth noting that Burton also charge twenty pounds, although that’s just because that’s what the home tickets cost.

The Championship manager hunting season is open

A second BBC report looked at the length of managerial appointments at each level of football and, in a ‘no s*** Sherlock’ moment they deduced that the Championship is the least safe place for managers. In fact over the past two seasons, the Championship has seen the greatest number of managerial changes (again no shock), with nine of the 17 top offending clubs with multiple sackings found in the division. On average managers in the second tier last around 380 days, so good luck to those about to celebrate their first year in charge, you might not make it to two.

Newcastle United are unstoppable

With not even half the season gone you might as well just send the trophy to St James Park such is the level of their dominance. A five point lead at the top might not seem like much, but when you take into account a few blips at the start of the season, it certainly doesn’t seem like anyone can stop them. Add in eight wins in their last ten games, and six wins in the last six, and you start to see the problem for the rest of the league

With the transfer window almost upon us, it will be interesting to see what happens at Newcastle. Obviously there are going to be plenty of in demand players for those clubs struggling in the top flight and, more importantly, manager Rafa Benitez will be top of the most wanted lists. Newcastle United are actually in an enviable position, however, where realistically they don’t need to bring in any new faces and if they keep everyone in place they should be celebrating in a few months time.

Rotherham United are stoppable

Sadly, there seems to be a negative correlation between two of the United’s in the division; however good Newcastle are, Rotherham are equally bad. They sit bottom of the table with just a single win, and a goal difference that is worse than the three teams above them combined. Whilst they may have managed to pull off some great escapes over the years, it just seems like this is going to be one too far.

New league format scrapped    

I really hope you are sitting down for the next statement; the FA finally got something right. I know, it had to happen eventually, but the FA has put a stop to the Football League’s plan to increase the number of divisions and the number of teams. The vast majority of lower league fans couldn’t see any way that this would be viable, especially when you take into account the fact that the League can barely support the number of teams it currently has.

FL Trophy results in fines

While on the subject of things the League has managed to mess up, it would be unfair to those in the divisions below to not mention the monumental circus that is the new Football League Trophy. This season is the first to see academy sides from the top two divisions entered and, as many predicted, it just isn’t working.

So far 12 clubs from Leagues One and Two have been fined for fielding weaker teams in games where only a handful of people are turning up to watch. Whilst the 16 ‘B teams’ can contain any youth players, with three over age players, there are strict rules for the teams that the contest was actually designed for. These include playing at least five of the players that started the previous game.

The argument is best summed up by the chief executive of one of the fined clubs, Luton Town. Gary Sweet pointed out they were trying to get playing time for some of their youth players, whilst playing against a team from a division above that only featured six regulars. It is also worth noting that they won the game in question. Apparently not all teams are allowed to improve their youth players.

Season ticket sales continue to rise

So finally a little good news for the League in general; season ticket holders have hit an all time high. The combined 72 clubs have amassed 500,000 season ticket holders so far for the first time and, with half season tickets on sale soon, this number may increase further. Even though around two thirds of these tickets are in the Championship, it is still great for the Leagues that ticket sales in the other divisions are continuing to rise.

By Paula Marcus

With the days getting shorter and the temperature dropping, December really is the best time for a really good streak. The table is finally starting to take shape, and with it, everyone is much more concerned about form. Just a quick look at headlines from last weekend’s games, and one theme really stuck out; streaks. 

There are six different teams that went into last weekend with wanted (and unwanted) runs starting to take shape. So who are the teams streaking into Christmas? Let’s begin with those teams that were probably happy to have their streaks end before the festive period.

First up is Norwich City. Remember them? Just a few games ago they were sitting pretty at the top of the table, before things started to go very wrong.

Since drawing with Fulham in mid-October they have been on a run that has brought a smile to the faces of Ipswich Town fans everywhere.

Last Saturday’s 5-0 demolition of Brentford resulted in their first points in five games and prevented them from slipping further away from the automatic promotion places.

Next are Bristol City, who managed to end their small three game losing streak with a home win against Ipswich Town. City’s form this year has been very up and down, but they are still aiming for a playoff push this season. With the table so tight, Saturday’s game gave them an important three points, leapfrogging them above Ipswich and leaving them a tantalisingly close to sixth place.

While both Bristol City and Norwich City will be happy to have ended their run of games without a win, there is one other team desperately hoping to join them, and that is Rotherham United. When you are sat at the bottom of the table in December, with just seven points and a goal difference fast approaching -30, it is probably no surprise that you haven’t been on the best run of form recently.

The Burton Albion loss last weekend was Rotherham’s 15th game without a win, a run that stretches back to the end of August when they managed a 1-0 victory against Brentford. Caretaker boss Paul Warne seems at a loss to improve results for United, and relegation is almost a certainty at this point.

While losing can become a habit that is hard to break, so is winning. As the saying goes, all good things must come to an end, and there are two teams who currently wished that wasn’t true. The arrival of Steve Bruce at Aston Villa has resulted in a dramatic change in fortunes, transforming Villa from a team attempting the double drop, to one that looks capable of a top six finish.

They arrived at Elland Road with a seven game unbeaten run that began with Bruce’s appointment. They left with his first defeat. As with all new managers, the big test comes now, in how he gets the team to respond to defeat. They have Wigan Athletic at home up next, and a win against a team firmly in a relegation battle will certainly be wanted before the busy Christmas period.

After a mixed start to the season, largely due to the appointment of new manager Japp Stam, Reading had just started to find a little form and a six game winning streak. That was until they faced Fulham. For some reason, Craven Cottage has never been a happy place to visit, and hopes were high that last weekend that would change. Ninety minutes, one red card and five goals later (all for Fulham) and it was very much normal service.

With other teams also losing, Reading kept hold of third place, at least for now. Fulham on the other hand, seem completely over their mini meltdown since relegation from the top flight a few seasons ago, and they are really looking like a team that can challenge for something this season (and I’m not just saying that to make a 5-0 defeat seem a little better).

Not every team that went into last weekend on a streak saw it ended. There was one team, Derby County, who managed to keep the dream alive. Derby’s victory against Wigan was their fifth in a row. They have only lost a single game since Steve McClaren was reappointed manager in October and they are now just two points off the playoffs. Up next they face mid table, and local rivals, Nottingham Forest. Forest themselves are on a three game winning streak that they will be hoping to extend further.

Of course, if we are going to talk about streaks and good form, it would be rude to not mention Newcastle United and their nine straight wins that was ended two weeks ago by Blackburn Rovers. That run took them from mid table to top of the table, and has rewarded them with a goal difference far superior to almost every team in the division. Up next for United, is fifth placed Birmingham and, after losing two games in a row now for the first time since the beginning of the season, they will be hoping to prevent another, less appealing, streak from starting.

With so many games over the next few weeks, form takes a much more important place. The table is still extremely tight, just six points between middle of the table Barnsley and both the playoff and relegation zone. Just a small losing run can take you from edge of the playoffs to relegation battle in no time.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

There is snow on the ground (well there is if you are in Toronto), the days are short, and managers are complaining about the number of fixtures. All together this means Christmas is most definitely in the air. In honour of the festive season, here is a pun-tastic look at what is going on in the Championship, apologies in advance.

There are certainly plenty of teams that are entering the festive period hoping for some Christmas miracles, and some much needed wins. QPR might have decked the halls with boughs of Holloway, but it certainly hasn’t had the effect that they wanted. Six games since Ian Holloway took over and they have five losses and just the one win, and that was only after playing against ten men for nearly 90 minutes.

At the moment it isn’t clear if he will manage to see in the New Year at Loftus road. A really poor defence and three games without a goal are really hurting QPR at the moment. So far there has been no real improvement on Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink, and QPR are only sitting above the relegation zone due to some really poor teams around them.

One of the main leaders in the poor teams category is bottom placed Rotherham United. They are certainly very lonely this Christmas as they sit eight points adrift at the wrong end of the table with a goal difference that is three times worse than Wigan Athletic, who are one place above. It seems so hopeless as far as Championship safety goes, that they should probably ask Santa for something else, not even he is that good.

Just a few weeks ago Birmingham City fans were happy after finally ending years of turmoil with an owner in jail and almost no money. Their takeover had just been completed, and manager Gary Rowett had them within touching distance of the playoffs. Now, however, things aren’t so rosy and City fans are getting set for a very blue Christmas.

Sure, they have owners that aren’t behind bars, but these same owners have just made one of the most baffling decisions ever in a division known for baffling decisions. The sacking of Rowett last week has sent shockwaves through the division, and managers who had felt secure in their job are now looking over their shoulders.

In the lead in the Scrooge category are Blackburn Rover’s owners. Despite the protests of the fans, and the poor performance of the team, they refuse to budge and sell the club. Without wanting to repeat previous articles too much, little has changed, and Rovers are still being run by people who seem to know very little about football. Add onto that some questionable links with agents and the whole situation is a mess that doesn’t look like being solved. I’m not even sure the ghost of Christmas past can help much here.

Not everything in the Championship is doom and gloom, even though it often seems that way. Second place in the Scrooge Bah Humbug category are Manchester United, who have decided to put money above all else (huge shock I know) and take advantage of the FA cup not have an away ticket price cap.

Premier League teams can only charge £30 to away fans for league games, but they have added 50% extra for the cup game with Reading. Thankfully, bringing plenty of glad tidings, Reading have announce that they will pay the extra for their fans. Sure United still get the extra money, but at least fans don’t have to spend more than they have to.

The team that will most certainly having a very Merry Christmas complete with visions of sugar plums, are league leaders Newcastle United. Even a few additions to the games lost column hasn’t done much to derail their promotion push. Sitting just behind United in second place are Brighton and Hove Albion.

Brighton have been a great story in terms of a Championship turnaround. After finishing two years ago in 20th position, they have progressed quickly up the table on the back of good football and a well respected manager. That said they may need to take a few lessons from some of the more Scrooge clubs as their spending more than doubled over the last 12 months.

Whoever you support, here is hoping you enjoy plenty of the spirit of Christmas, or at the very least plenty of Christmas Spirits.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

The championship looks more challenging than ever this season. Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United look to be cementing their positions up in the top two while a number of teams are dropping in and out of the playoffs. So which teams should we keep an eye on?

Before we get into that, it’s worth noting how many high profile managers are competing in the league this season – Garry Monk, Rafael Benitez, Steve Bruce and Chris Houghton to name a few; these popular managers emphasize how important the league is and reflect the talent playing at this level.

The top two

Brighton and Newcastle are putting some distance between themselves and the chasing pack, with second place Newcastle currently six points clear of third place Reading. Leaders Brighton were arguably the best team in the division last season as their 21-game unbeaten streak proved. They were very unlucky to miss out on promotion but this season they look even stronger with key players such as Glenn Murray (15 goals) leading the charge for automatic promotion. Many would argue that Newcastle are too big a club to be in this division, and their results this season under Rafa Benitez are proof of that – Striker Dwight Gayle is on fire with 19 goals from 25 matches.

The playoff race

Reading find themselves currently in third place thanks in large part to their impressive manager, Jaap Stam. He has helped Reading turn their fortunes around over the past few months, while playing attractive football. American midfielder Danny Williams has also made a sizable contribution with energy to burn.

The rest of the play-off positions are occupied by three Yorkshire clubs – Huddersfield, Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday, with Barnsley just below them.

Huddersfield manager David Wagner is a Jurgen Klopp disciple, so they have been seen playing a high pressing game while the manager has used his Bundesliga knowledge to add German imports to his squad. Sleeping giants Leeds United have been quietly picking up steam under Garry Monk who insists that they won’t be selling any players in the transfer window.

Lurking just outside the play off spots are a number of strong teams who look capable of breaking into the top six. Steve McLaren has steadied the ship at Derby County and is looking to strengthen his squad this month.

Norwich City are a team who should be performing better than their current 9th place indicates. Their 3-0 win over Derby County this week may help kick start the Canaries promotion push.

Other storied teams such as Aston Villa, Birmingham and Fulham have a number of talented young players who will be eager to improve on their current mid-table standing. Brentford are another team with good form in this division and could be further up the table by the end of the season.

By Paula Marcus

It seems hard to believe that just 12 months ago the hot topics were Charlton’s off field issues (which they still have), would Middlesbrough go up as champions (not quite) and would Derby County choke again (they did)?

Football fans like to predict, it is a way to show off what we know. Unfortunately we often forget one simple thing; football is unpredictable. In my case, my ability to predict doesn’t seem to reach even one second into the future.

That aside, I am going to start the year with yet one more try (at some point I have to get something right) and look at who will be having a good or bad 2017. When predictions aren’t your strong suite, it is probably best to start with the sure things. So the team likely to be having a pretty bad 2017 are unsurprisingly Rotherham United. There is very little to say that hasn’t already been said, but not even a Boxing Day win over relegation rivals Wigan Athletic could do much to help. In fact, all the win did is provide a chance at finishing off the foot of the table.

In the same vein it seems unlikely that Wigan will see any of the highs that they enjoyed last year, thanks to topping the League One table. A change of manager in November hasn’t changed much on the pitch and this year will almost certainly see them make a quick return back to League One. In the first of the less certain predictions, I see Burton Albion also making the return with them. This isn’t based just on their current squad and recent struggles, but also on manager Nigel Clough’s suggestion they need to spend big in January. That rarely helps fend off relegation.

Despite spending all of the season in the bottom three, I believe Blackburn Rovers will avoid the drop. Their ability to score is a real asset in staying up, if they can just plug the hole in their defence they should be safe. That said, I still see this year being much of the same for them with off-field issues still plaguing the club. With the Venky’s showing no signs of leaving, and the FA/Football League showing they have no interest in dealing with poor ownership, fan unrest will continue into 2018. I very much doubt they would be able to survive a second year in this state.

Just two weeks ago, when I planned this article, I saw the next part of this being very easy. Thanks to Newcastle United and a slight blip in form, I am actually going to have to go out on a limb. Now, with a two point lead and a game in hand, it looks like Brighton and Hove Albion are the safe bet for automatic promotion. Brighton haven’t lost in the league since Newcastle beat them at the end of August, and they are showing no signs of slowing form.

While 2016 may have been a mixed year that ultimately saw the Seagulls miss promotion, this year will be even better for them. What awaits them after promotion will depend on how they can improve their squad. Failure to invest in the right way, or attempting to completely overhaul their team, could result in a 2018 relegation.

As for United, they will almost certainly join them in the Premier League. Even though Reading are clipping at their heels, a six point difference and breath taking goal difference should see them safe, although they will probably have to settle for second spot. The playoff race may still be very tight, but I can see Reading finishing in the top six whilst failing to win promotion (this is an easy prediction for any Reading fan, just look at our previous playoff results).

Good and bad years aren’t always defined by promotion or relegation. I can easily predict that Barnsley will be having another good year, as they follow up on last season’s promotion with a very comfortable mid-table finish. Fulham will also see 2017 as a very good year as they finally recover from their relegation a few years ago. They won’t get a top six finish this year, but they should start 2018 in that place.

One team that probably isn’t thrilled to be ending the year still in the Championship are Cardiff City. They have somehow managed to switch from a team that finished just outside the playoffs to one battling at the other end of the table. They will be hoping that Neil Warnock can give them something to cheer about, but despite his talking, I just don’t see him pushing them to promotion. One thing I can predict; he will be spending in January.

Hull City might not yet be a Championship club, but after the sacking of manager Phelan they will be by the time 2018 starts. And if they want to avoid making this year one to really forget, the next managerial appointment is vital. As a club, they know better than most how vital a good start is in the Championship if you really want to get a quick promotion.

Finally, a few quickies to finish off; QPR and Nottingham Forest will change manager again, Ipswich Town will spend no money and Cellino will say something ridiculous. So with that, you can just sit back and enjoy the rest of the season, just promise to look surprised at the end of the year. Let me know your predictions for 2017.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

Fans hoping that 2017 would be a nice change from the previous two crazy years in the Championship are already disappointed. 

Not even a full month in and this year is starting much like the last one ended; with owners and managers still making all the headlines. I actually debated a different theme last week but, as this is supposed to inform about the latest news, I really have no choice.

There are three main components of any football team once you exclude the fans (don’t worry I will get to them later), and that is the players, manager and owner. When they work well together they can achieve the unthinkable and turn an average Football League side into one capable to fighting to be in the top division. When they go wrong, you’re left with any number of teams struggling at the moment, especially Nottingham Forest.

Whenever there is a string of poor results leading to a managers sacking, it is usually accepted that the manager is at fault. But is it always that simple? Everyone remembers Chelsea players underperforming to remove a manager, and I’m sure it goes on more than you think. Players are people (believe it or not) and they are capable of thinking and adapting without someone yelling at them on the sideline, and as such they must bear some of the responsibility when things aren’t going well.

There is also the one unwritten truth that most fans forget; the players aren’t usually fans of the club they are playing for. The further down the leagues you go the more true this becomes. Players want to play and need to get paid, therefore they will pay for whatever team is willing to give them the opportunity to achieve both.

If you are a top player, and can have your pick of clubs, it’s more likely you can play for your boyhood club that also happens to be in the top four. Beyond that and players are playing for their career. Sure, given long enough many players will become very fond of the teams they are playing for, they may even drop in a ‘we’ or two when talking about the club years later, but it really isn’t the same.

Next on the chain is the manager. It almost makes sense that failure on the pitch equals instant sacking. But I did say ‘almost’ and how we define failure seems to be becoming a little hazier. In previous years it would have been a failure to finish in the playoffs for the past two to three years, or taking a club expected to be pushing for promotion into the relegation zone. Now it seems to be no win in ten games, or five losses on the bounce.

On paper the Nottingham Forest sacking manager Philippe Montanier after Saturday’s game wasn’t really a huge surprise. They now sit two places above the relegation zone, with one draw in the last six games and a goal against column that is catching up with Rotherham United’s at an alarming rate. However, when you start looking at the bigger picture, things aren’t as clear.

Montanier took over just seven months ago, after Forest had endured another painful season, so was anything other than a relegation battle really expected? Next up he started the season with a star youth player and a director of football. Oliver Burke was gone days before the window shut, leaving no time to replace him, and director of football Pedro Periera left three months ago.

If on field issues aren’t the players fault, and aren’t the managers fault, then only one thing is left, and that’s the owners. It is no coincidence that the increase in rapid firings has coincided with an increase in the number of new foreign owners, many of which have never had anything to do with English football. Obviously not every issue is owner related, and some have proved a real worth to the League, but sadly some have been disastrous.

Forest thought their prayers had been answered when Fawaz Al-Hasawi took over in 2012. But his stay at the club has quickly turned into a nightmare the fans can’t end. Just 24 hours before Montanier’s sacking it was announced that a proposed takeover by an American investor had fallen through. If rumours are to be believed, the issues were very much from the selling end, leaving fans and players with little idea what the future holds.

Fans don’t always come out of manager sackings smelling of roses. Obviously booing in the case of Forest and Blackburn Rovers this season they are just trying to do the best for their club and all dissatisfaction is aimed directly at the owners, but this isn’t always the case. Expectations from fans have become completely unrealistic, and there now seems to be an unwritten rule that if you are in the Championship and not top of the table, the club is doing something wrong.

Managing fan expectations is becoming harder and harder. You have teams like Nottingham Forest, Derby County and to a lesser extent those like Preston North End (historically one of the more successful teams in English Football) who are now sat in the Championship. But after spending a few seasons far outside the top flight fans may need to shift their levels of belief just a tad.

So next time you start booing the manager, think if it really is right? Or have you set your expectations a little far from reality.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

After a few weeks of flying under the radar, it seems Aston Villa were once again making the headlines as the transfer window slammed shut. 

Transfer deadline day is normally a chaotic affair, but add in half the teams in the Championship playing as the window closed, and it became something else. Feeds were full of goal announcements intertwined with last minute moves, and some very big money transfers.

Aston Villa’s transfer dealings, in particular, have caught the eye. Not happy with their excessive spending in the last window, they have continued to throw money at the issue of getting out of the Championship fast. Obviously Villa do have an advantage over almost all of the division, namely nice parachute payments to soften any spending. But this season’s payment was spent in window number one and, should they fail to get promoted, they will have to be aware of financial fair play rules.

Just hours before the window shut, Aston Villa forked out £12 ($15) million for Brentford striker Scott Hogan. Spending £12 millions in a single season is big news for any Championship club, even one that has the bonus of the parachute payments, but this isn’t their only signing to reach over the £10 ($12) million mark. In fact, it isn’t even the first striker they have signed over that mark, and now they have spent over £40 ($50) million on just strikers in the 2016/17 season.

I am well aware that, like so many transfers, the fee mentioned doesn’t tell the whole story. This is the highest amount, should all the add-ons be paid. But it isn’t easy to find the pre-add on prices, so just knock a million or two off these prices if it makes you feel better. Striker Jonathan Kodjia joined Villa from Bristol City in the summer for £15 ($19) million, and so far he seems to be giving a good return on his gigantic fee. With 9 goals already in 23 appearances, he is on track to be valued at one million per goal by the end of the season.

Next in the big money striker department is Ross McCormack, the player that has been traded for £23 ($29) million total in the last two years, also signed for Villa at the start of the season, forming the divisions most expensive strike force. Unlike Kodjia, McCormack has been unable to replicate his previous form, and Hogan’s arrival has seen him sent out on loan to Nottingham Forest.

The move was unsurprising after McCorack was fined earlier in the month for repeatedly missing training and being, in Steve Bruce’s words, a long way off match fitness. His three goals so far also probably aren’t helping matters. The fact Forest have signed him, albeit on loan, really shows the position they are in.

Looking around the division, Villa weren’t the only team spending big money. After a relatively quiet summer, where incoming funds were greater than out going, Norwich City spent £7 million on Wigan Athletic winger Yanic Wildschut. Wildschut had already requested a transfer from the Latics after they blocked multiple bids, so his departure was hardly a surprise.

In deadline day’s ‘just how many players did they sign today’ category there is one clear winner. Step forward Wigan Athletic and the eight players that joined the club. When you are faced with relegation you can either make the best of what you have and try to make a few adjustments, or go for all out panic. It’s easy to see which path Wigan have taken. It isn’t even the sheer number of players that they have signed, more the fact that few of them are particularly inspiring signings.

Any Reading fan around in the late 90’s will remember a certain deadline day (back when there was just one a year), with the club sitting in a similar position at the wrong end of the table. Then manager Tommy Burns decided to (unsuccessfully) try and stave off relegation to the third tier with seven signings on the last day. Wigan fans will be hoping that extra player makes all the difference, as Reading ended the season still in the relegation zone.

Not every team in the division was busy recruiting new blood. With promotion looking more and more like a formality, both Brighton and Hove Albion and Newcastle United decided that less really is more. Newcastle made such whole scale changes over the summer it really isn’t surprising they have chosen to stick with the squad they have. Trying to meld all the players into a cohesive unit once is hard, and what they have obviously is working.

For Brighton, they did make a few minor changes turning Glenn Murray’s loan into a permanent deal,  and adding a little fire power with Arsenal striker Chuba Akpom, who has signed on loan till the end of the season.  Akpom is no stranger to the Championship, after spending last season on loan at eventual Play-off winners Hull City. His goal scoring record for club might not stand out, but he has impressed at previous loan clubs and his record for England youth teams is very impressive.

Not everyone had a good, stress free day, but of Sheffield Wednesday’s last minute attempt to sign Jordan Rhodes just about went through in time. This will be a big boost to Wednesday’s team as they look to push on to the play offs.

With the window shut and the money spent, all is now set for the end of season push. From big changes and slight tweeks everyone is now stuck with what they have, well at least until the ‘emergency’ loan window opens.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

One of the greatest things about lower league football is that size and history really don’t matter. The leagues are made up of a good mix of teams that have won multiple trophies, to those whose only claim to fame is the odd giant killing in the cup. 

Take the Championship, with teams range from Newcastle Utd to Burton Albion, both in terms of history and stadium capacity. A great diversity of teams also means that you have a great number of ‘medicore teams’ fighting in the division, those who have yo-yo’d more than most.

Someone at Trinity Mirror with far too much time on their hands went out to prove just that and calculate which team is the most mediocre one in all the leagues. This involved looking at the finishing positions of every one of the 92 professional teams since the league expanded in 1958, and unsurprisingly seven of the ten most average teams are currently in the Championship.

According to the study results the most average side since 1958 is Hull City, with a standing of 47.1, just 0.6 away from the midway point of 46.5. Even though Hull are currently a Premier League side, they are looking quite likely to make a quick return to the Championship in the next few months, so it feels ok to include them in this. In fact, Hull are actually more of a new entry to the mediocre charts, with their results over the past few seasons cancelling out the previous years in the middle and lower divisions.

Next up, 0.5 back are Brighton and Hove Albion and Luton Town, two teams with varying fortunes lately.. Whilst Luton are currently challenging to get out of League Two after a few seasons of poor money management and costly fines, Brighton are looking a sure thing for promotion to the top tier and a move further away from years of mediocrity. Whilst Albion did manage a few years in the top division in the 80’s this would be their first time in the Premier League after spending  the last six years in the Championship.

Sitting 0.1 and 0.2 behind Luton Town, with an average placing of 45.3 and 45.2 are the surprise entries Huddersfield Town and Preston North End. Anyone who knows anything about early Football knows that these were two of the teams to beat. In fact Preston were the first and second winners of the League. Sadly, this study only looked at performances since 1958, and since then North End have spent almost all of their time in the middle two divisions, hence their lower ranking.

Like Preston, Huddersfield Town’s greatest glory also comes in the time before the 1958 cut off. But unlike Preston, Huddersfield actually have a very good shot at returning to the Top Flight this season. Currently they sit in third place as the in-form team of the division. Win their game in hand, and Saturday’s game with League leaders Newcastle United, and they may yet have a chance at one of those automatic promotion spots.

Blackpool are next up in the mediocre chart, although with recent off-field issues and fan discontent, they probably will not be in that position for long. Closely behind Blackpool with a position of 44.7 are Cardiff City. A chart of Cardiff’s previous league positions is amazing, as they basically went all the way down through the divisions for 20 years, followed by the reverse for 20 years, finally culminating in their one season in the Premier League. With the club finally in a stable position, and issues with owner Vincent Tan resolved, it seems unlikely they will be repeating their nose dive any time soon.

Both Wigan Athletic and Reading are next in the table with the same position of 48.3. It’s actually very appropriate that these teams currently have the same mediocre rating, as both will have relied on more recent history to elevate up the rankings. These are two teams that have very ‘nothing’ histories, with almost all of the time spent in the bottom two divisions. Recently, however, things have been a little different, with both teams experiencing their first seasons in the top tier, combined with extended time in the Championship.

Sadly, for Wigan at least, their Championship story looks likely to take a hiatus this season, with Athletic looking likely to make a return to League One. Reading on the other hand look unlikely to leave the division by any means. They are safe from relegation, but a few poor results against promotion rivals means an exit up looks just as unlikely.

The final team in the top 10 most mediocre teams is Barnsley, coming in at 49.1. Barnsley are another surprise entry, until you go back over their previous seasons. Whilst they have spent very little of the past few decades in the top division, and therefore avoided most press coverage, they have also spent very little of it outside the middle two divisions, making them a true average side.

Whilst this might all be a bit of fun, there is one interesting fact to come out of these figures. Of those seven Championship teams mentioned, five of them have results over the past ten to 15 years to thank for their new found positions. I remember having a discussion with a friend who said that teams always end up where they have spent most of their time, and it’s nice to see that isn’t always true. Of course all of this means little. Fans know and are proud of whatever achievements their teams have had over the years, however big and small.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

Nottingham Forest and Derby County share one of the fiercest rivalries in Football and, since 2007, the Brian Clough Trophy has been presented to the winner of each derby match, in memory of the man who famously managed both teams. But over the past few seasons, despite both teams having illustrious histories, that is the closest that either team has come to a trophy.

When the Brian Clough Trophy is contested this weekend, both teams will have new men at the helm after they each sacked their managers in the past week citing poor performances. What is more disturbing is that this is the fifth time in a row that both teams have had a new manager for the derby game. Just let that sink in. Since January 2015 there have been over ten different managers between the two clubs.

So what has gone wrong at these two clubs and who is to blame for the endless manager conveyer belt? For both these clubs, the issues seem to arise from a failure to make a quick return to the hallowed ground of the Premier League and, over the past few season, things just seem to be going from bad to worse.

Starting with Forest, it seems a lot of their issues started with the sudden death of previous owner Nigel Doughty. With the club suffering from severe financial uncertainly, the sale of the club to Fawaz Al-Hasawi was supposed to enable them to fight once again for promotion. However, things have so far not gone to plan and off field turmoil has been replaced by on field instability, with excessive manager changes and fan protests a sign of the times.

The fact that fans are disillusioned with how Al-Hasawi is running the club is hardly surprising. Since he purchased Forest, the team has faced winding up petitions and transfer embargoes for breaching the leagues Financial Fair Play rules, all while attempting to avoid relegation to League One. Things reached a peak in January when a proposed takeover deal fell through, despite months of negotiations.

Derby County’s problems are more to do with an owner who wants to micromanage the team. If you thought that hands on owners were going to end after Dave Whelan stepped down from Wigan Athletic, Mel Morris is here to make you think again. A poor performance in February 2016 led to Morris entering the dressing room to ‘rant’ at the players and clashed with managers have been common.

The fact that Morris is after immediate success is the number one issue, and it is also completely unrealistic. Whilst he might be quick to put all the blame on the manager, it might be time to start looking elsewhere. With four managers in a year and a half, something is obviously very wrong. Firstly he might want to have a quick look at his hiring process (something he might have finally done, but more on that later). Re-hiring a manager you sacked just over a year ago is beyond crazy.

Then there are the players. McClaren was apparently planning to overhaul the dressing room in the summer, aware that some players were maybe not committed to their manager. With so much instability at the club it’s hardly surprising the players are having some issues, but they still need to take some of the blame. It had been mentioned over the past few weeks that it appeared McClaren had lost the dressing room; this sacking seems to confirm it.

With so much managerial turnover at these clubs, it’s almost amazing they can find anyone willing (or desperate) enough to take the job. But both clubs will present their new men in the dugout Saturday. For Nottingham Forest, this new man is former Rangers manager Mark Warburton. More importantly, Warburton was also the man that masterminded Brentford’s rise from League One to Championship playoffs. He certainly has a good understanding of what is needed at this level and his appointment could be the spark Forest need to avoid relegation.

As for Derby County, their new appointment is equally astute. It seems Al-Hasawi might have finally found a manager that has a chance of making it to a full year in charge. Gary Rowett performed miracles at Birmingham City, and was unlucky to be sacked after a change in ownership. He also seems fully aware of what he has gotten himself into. It appears he has set some ground rules with Morris and made it clear he is the manager. Whether Morris will listen or not remains to be seen, but at least it is a good start.

Hopefully, for both Forest and County fans, their owners will finally realise one of the more important lessons in football; stability is key. Over the past few seasons, the clubs that have been the most successful have been the most stable. A different manager every week will always make it hard for you to do well, whether it’s trying to prevent relegation, like Forest, or Derby’s endless attempts to win promotion.

Finally both teams seem to have managers that are more than capable of achieving good things in this division. The big question is, will either of them get the time?

A Championship Play Off Final Preview

By Paula Marcus

It’s hard to believe just a week ago Reading and Huddersfield Town booked their places at the play-off final. This is the pinnacle for any Football League fan, the one thing you dream for. It’s the chance to play for the biggest prize in football, the chance to play in the top flight and cash in on an estimated $300 million.

As a football fan, it is an interesting experience. As a Reading fan, just hearing the words ‘play-off final’ can strike fear into you due to a less than perfect record. The whole season has built up to this point, and now you are just one game away. I debated on how biased this article should be, well sorry Huddersfield, it’s going to be a tad one sided. So here is the build up to what has been dubbed the final no one wanted.

Whilst it could be argued it is the final no one wanted, it is definitely the final no one predicted. Last season both teams looked like taking the trap door out of the division as Reading finished in 17th place, with Town just two places below. But that isn’t the only reason neither team are particularly popular. It still seems strange to me that you have to be of a certain size to apparently get promoted to the top flight, but that seems to be the attitude of many fans. In each of Reading’s three season in the Premier League we were over 95% capacity for home games, and took a sizeable following away. Likewise, I don’t think the addition of Bournemouth has decreased the value of the division, in fact it has probably enhanced it. They are a team that have done everything the right way, regardless of the size of their ground.

Arguably, based on League position over the season, both Reading and Huddersfield are the worthy finalists. In the case of Town, they spent large parts of the season in the top three and, for a while, looked like they had the potential to challenge the top two. Only a dip in form the last couple of months prevented that, and allowed Reading to overtake.

Reading on the other hand have been in the playoff places since October. Sure, we had a slow start, but changing manager over the summer can do that. Once the team adapted to Japp Stam’s new tactics, we have been one of the more consistent teams in the division, which leads me to my number one whinge; at no point in the play-offs have we been the favourites. Three weeks ago, we were the least fancied of the four play-off teams, despite being in the top position. Whilst the gap in odds is closing, we are still somehow the underdogs.

We might not have the greatest goal difference in the division, but Huddersfield are actually worse off and whichever team wins will have the honor of the lowest goal difference of a promoted team. We have also been the form  team over the last ten games, whilst Huddersfield are 19th with just three wins and nine goals scored.

The one big thing we do have against us is precedent. Reading may actually have the worst play-off record of any team, ever. In the last 22 years, we have been in the play-offs five times with a grand total of zero promotions. That includes three lost finals, two of which we were leading (one by two goals). In the same period Huddersfield featured in seven play-offs, gaining promotion three times, most recently on their return to the Championship in 2012. So this may explain why Royals fans aren’t the most optimistic bunch when it comes to play-off finals. But that still doesn’t stop some of us flying over 3,000 miles for the final (yes I am that stupid).

Over the course of the season there has been little to separate the two teams, with the hosts winning both games 1-0. The head-to-head stats, however, favor Reading, who lead with 25 wins compared to Huddersfield’s 14, with 11 draws between the sides. But this is the play-offs, and past history means very little, it’s all about how you perform on the day. Both teams have recent history playing at Wembley, and Town’s win in 2012 puts them well head of Reading, who lost their last final and FA cup semi-final and the national stadium.

With less than a week till the final, the buildup has actually been very composed from both sides. There has, so far at least, been no insults thrown between the teams or mind games attempted. Reading have continued in a business as usual fashion, training at home and soaking up the atmosphere, whilst town have been soaking up some sun in a training camp in Portugal.

Whilst training has been going well, both teams do have injury concerns ahead of the big day. Reading’s Jordan Obita collapsed on the pitch after the first lag against Fulham, and is still a doubt with a hamstring injury. That’s combined with captain McShane missing the final due to a red card in the same game. We should cope with his absence though, after he missed the later part of the season with injuries. Huddserfield are waiting on the fitness of Elias Kachunga, who missed the end parts of their penalty win over Sheffield Wednesday. He is still a doubt for Monday’s game, although stand in Collin Quaner’s excellent performance after coming on in place of the injured striker.

So that’s it, flights booked, tickets sorted and hooped shirt packed (the lucky one obviously). Next stop my first experience of seeing my team at Wembley. Here’s hoping it’s a happy one (sorry Huddersfield Town).

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

An innovative new service will enable overseas EFL fans to follow their team’s entire 2017/18 season

This summer the EFL unveiled iFollow, an innovative digital live streaming and content platform that will revolutionise the way football fans overseas can follow teams in the English Championship, League One, and League Two.

iFollow will, for the first time in English football, enable EFL fans based outside the UK and Ireland to watch their team during the regular EFL season.

With an estimated 270,000 EFL fans based outside the UK, iFollow will allow clubs to enable their supporters to follow the action wherever they are in the world.

Kicking off at the start of the 2017/18 EFL season, overseas subscribers will pay $140 per season for the service which will provide coverage of up to 46 live games per club.

More than 1,500 matches will be available in HD quality, with iFollow showing every EFL league match live unless that match has been selected by the EFL’s overseas broadcast partners.

Fans based in the UK and Ireland will still also have access to live audio commentary, highlights packages and exclusive content as part of the new offering, rebranded to replace the EFL’s existing PlayerHD platform.

At launch, the vast majority of EFL clubs have opted in to utilise the iFollow platform and those who have not will have access to the same live streaming opportunity and will provide their fans with access through their own club digital services.

Research commissioned by the EFL suggests that there is significant demand for a service like iFollow amongst fans based overseas. A survey of over 1,600 such fans showed that 73% would be very likely or quite likely to subscribe to a live match streaming service and almost half would be happy to pay an annual subscription fee to do so.

The findings suggest over 55% of the EFL’s fans are located in the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand where the potential audience for the iFollow platform could reach into the hundreds of thousands.

EFL Chief Executive Shaun Harvey commented: “The launch of iFollow is a notable development and will revolutionise the access thousands of overseas fans enjoy when following their EFL team.

“The new iFollow platform represents a potentially significant new revenue stream for clubs, while enabling enhanced engagement with existing fans now living abroad.

“iFollow will also present the EFL with an important opportunity to stimulate the interest of new groups of supporters who follow our clubs overseas, which in turn will help support the growth of our competitions on the international stage.”

The live streaming of matches will be available from the start of the 2017/18 season in conjunction with a brand new digital presence for clubs via official websites and apps, together creating the largest sporting digital network in the world.

US-based company NeuLion, a market leader in online video delivery, whose clients include the NFL, NBA and the Premier League, have developed the integrated streaming service alongside UK company Realise who have built the club websites.

The two suppliers were appointed by the EFL in July 2016 following a competitive procurement process.

We already witnessed some breathtaking football matches this season and it appears that the English League Championship table is now beginning to take shape. From the first five games, the results and performance of the 24 teams shade a picture on how they will fare in the 2017/2018 season. 

With just a few days left in the summer transfer window, the biggest activity in the English League Championship is clubs looking to conclude their final summer deals. Some clubs have already earmarked who they will pursue, while others due to poor and indifferent starts, will resort to ‘panic buys’ to beef up their squads for the season. At this stage, you’ll find many new football betting sites featuring the top transfer odds for this season.

Top championship transfer news this week is Reading’s pursuit of Sone Aluko from Fulham. Aluko arrived as a free transfer from Wolves in the last transfer summer window to join the Fulham team. Aluko scored a total of eight league goals including one in the FA Cup for Fulham last season. Many argue that it is his ability to hold up play and stretch defences that has seen his stock rise in recent times. Fulham has an option to extend Aluko’s current deal by a further year; a clause which is clearly stated on his contract. However, a strong bid from Reading will be hard to reject. Royal Panda has 23/20 odds on Aluko’s transfer to Reading going through before Thursday’s deadline.

Meanwhile, Preston North End striker Jordan Hugill handed in a transfer request amid interest from Sunderland. It is believed that Hugill’s preferred destination is Sunderland though there are other suitors in Birmingham City and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Hugill scored 13 goals in 47 appearances for Preston last season. Newcastle’s Grant Hanley was told he is not in manager Rafa Benitez’s plans for the 2017/2018 season. Norwich City is believed to be working hard to secure Hanley’s signature before the end of the transfer season.

Table toppers Cardiff City who made a blistering start to the new season and won 5 in 5, will be up against Fulham. Fulham is currently sitting in 14th position having just a single win under their belt. Bookmakers expect Cardiff City to continue their excellent start to the new season with a win against Fulham. Red Bet provides 8/11 odds for a Cardiff City win, while Fulham stands at 18/5 odds.

Ipswich Town who have made a fast start this season with 4 wins and one defeat, is up against Queens Park Rangers. QPR made an indifferent start with 2 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their first five games. Genting has 11/10 odds for a QPR win, 14/5 odds for an Ipswich Town win and 28/11 odds for a draw.

Third on the table and with more business still to do in the transfer window, is the Leeds United take on Burton in their 6th match. Leeds United managed 3 wins and 2 draws in their first 5 matches while Burton has 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses thus far and are sitting in position 21. Leeds has 13/8 odds for a win and Burton has 5/1 odds for a win according to Toals bookmakers.

With the table starting to take shape, the battle for promotion and the fight for relegation have commenced. According to online sources, Wolves are favourites for automatic promotion with 3/1 odds, Cardiff stands at 2nd place with 4/1 odds, Middlesbrough at 3rd position with 7/1 odds and Fulham and Leeds are tied on 4th place with 10/1 odds.

By Paula Marcus

The start of September is a very strange time for football fans. After surviving three months without football, followed by the rapid number of games occurring in part due to the EFL cup, we are then straight into the first international break. But if we need something to distract us from below par England performances at least there is always the transfer window.

Whilst, unsurprisingly, most of the headlines have been influenced by the vast spending in the top division and across Europe, it may have gone unnoticed that this is also a record breaking window for the Championship too. The divisional spending record has been broken along with many clubs individual spending. In general, there has been three catagories of clubs; the relegated, the rich owner and the less is more.

Relegated

Obviously the clubs relegated from the Premier League have the luxury of money to burn. Not only do they have the parachute payments to bump up their incoming money, but they are also far more likely to sell players for above average prices. This season’s biggest spenders fit into this category. Middlesbrough managed to spend over £50 million in the last two months. Not only have they probably spent more than any club in recent memory (although Aston Villa might just edge that), they have almost had the biggest signing fee with the £15 or so million they spent on Britt Assombalonga.

Middlesbrough were in the very fortunate position of combining over £30 million in player sales with their parachute payments. Hull City have also been making the most of those payments to boost their squad, spending a total of £14 million so far. Hull have, however, spread that money around, with their highest fee in the window ‘just’ £4 million. Proving that just because you have something you don’t have to use it are Sunderland, whose top fee so far is just £500k.

Rich owners

Despite all the promise that Financial Fair Play (FFP) brought to the smaller clubs in the division, it has so far not lived up to the hype. Clubs with rich owners and are still pumping money into clubs with no regard for the future consequences. It probably doesn’t help that the League has previously seemed unable to do much for past breaches as long as promotion is reached (step forward QPR).  Small fines are insignificant against the windfall and promise of the Premier League.

Changes introduced last year aimed at making clubs far more accountable by allowing the League to impose any punishment they see fit, including point deductions. But with this season’s considerable increase in total spending, it seems the new version of FFP hasn’t worried many clubs. The club that should be most concerned are Wolverhampton Wanderers. Not only have they spent around half their FFP allowance for total losses in this window, but they also have the new league record for most spent on a single player (£16 million).

Three of the biggest spenders are predictably last season’s three unsuccessful playoff teams Reading, Sheffield Wednesday and Fulham. Reading have smashed their single player record, giving Fulham £7 million for Sone Aluko just before the window shut.

On top of this, they have also spent a further £4 million, suggesting that promotion is still the primary aim. Sheffield Wednesday’s £11 million signing was technically worth the money, as they opted to make Jordan Rhodes loan permanent.  Fulham’s spending was the lowest of the three, topping out at £8 million.

There are a further seven clubs that have spent in excess of £1 million on a single player, putting them in the lower spending side of the spending clubs. After a series of big money and slightly laughable transfers last year, Villa have apparently learnt you can’t always buy promotion. Instead they have spent just over £1 million on their most expensive signing. This seasons current leaders Cardiff City decided their amazing form at the end of last season meant minor tweaks to their squad would be enough, also spending only a few million. A special mention should also go to Ipswich Town, the traditional non-spenders. This season they have been upgraded as they have signed two players for almost £1 million each.

Less is more

Despite all the money flying around this year, there are three clubs who have zero outgoings. QPR are another of the clubs that has apparently learnt lessons about over spending. They have spent the last few seasons trying to balance the books after living beyond their means. This season they have relied on free transfers to strengthen their squad and hopefully elevate them to a mid-table finish. Another team following suit are Nottingham Forest, who have seen no reward for their big spending over the past few seasons, other than a few bans on signing new players.

The two remaining zero spenders are the last two promoted clubs Millwall and Bolton Wanderers. Bolton are just coming out of a period of huge uncertainty and the club are unsurprisingly unwilling to gamble again on their future. Instead they have signed smartly, bringing in five players that featured in the Championship last season hoping that this will be enough to steer them to survival.

With the window shut, clubs now have to hope their squad has the strength and depth to cope until it reopens next year. It remains to be seen which of these new signings will bring the biggest impact, but at least we only have a day or two until football is back.

By Paula Marcus

With the introduction of the new iFollow streaming service for overseas Football League fans this season, the door has been well and truly opened for new ways for lower league fans to watch their teams. Last week this was taken to the next level with a new Sky deal enabling UK based fans to stream all midweek games not already selected for TV. But is this as good as it seems?

In terms of the basics of the deal, it is a significant increase of 36% on the previous deal. The EFL will now collect £120/$162 million per year (£600/$813 million over the course of the five year contract), up from just under £90/$120 million per year for the previous agreement. Despite the considerable increase in value, not everyone is happy. Derby County owner Mel Morris has been arguing that the way in which TV rights are sold should be restructured.

Currently, the money is divided between the EFL’s three divisions, with an average League One club receiving around 20% less than those teams in the divisions above. This drops a further 30% in League Two. The argument over the current deal revolves around the reality that viewing figures are higher in the higher division. Out of roughly 150 games televised, only 20-30 broadcast games are actually required to feature teams outside of the Championship.

The ‘larger’ clubs in both the Championship and League One feel that they aren’t getting as much as they should be. The current Premier League deal, also ending in the next few years is worth over £5/$6.8 billion, meaning that the team that finished bottom last season earned more for that year than the EFL did for three divisions. Viewing figures, however, don’t reflect such a difference in valuation. Premier League games attract roughly three times more views per games.

That aside, allowing the individual divisions to negotiate their own deals, or selling off certain packages separately (such as playoffs) will see a drastic reduction in funding to the bottom tiers. The EFL has the difficult job of trying to create a package that is best for all their member teams, and it remains to be seen if this new deal achieves this.

So that’s the money side done, now what about the deal itself? As the deal doesn’t begin until 2019 there are a lot of question marks over how this new streaming system will work. Current information states that all clubs will be allowed to stream their matches as long as they fall outside the Saturday 2:45 to 5:15pm blackout period and have not been selected for Sky. It seems to be implied that these games will be shown through iFollow, the streaming service set up this year to allow overseas fans to watch every game live as long as the game is not being broadcast (with the blackout only in place within the UK).

The second important question (at least for those of us that don’t follow teams with a large fan base) is how this new deal will influence how games are selected for TV and what impact there will be to overseas broadcast rights. Unlike the Premier League, where almost all games are shown live outside of the UK, the Football League is restricted to showing only the games preselected for TV. Hopefully this will not change with the new deal, much as I enjoy Leeds United, Aston Villa and Sunderland being shown almost every week.

Ironically, it is probably the presence of some of these so called ‘larger’ teams that have made a deal like this possible. An increase in teams with sizeable fan bases (both at home and overseas) in the Football League will obviously increase demand for games to be shown. In turn this allows for more revenue to be generated through advertising and, in general, makes lower league football far more attractive than it was a decade or two ago.

With the Premier League deal also due to expire, I’m sure they have been following the negotiations with interest. Rumours are already circulating that a similar deal could be agreed for the top division, presumably with clubs able to offer their own streaming service. This has become an option, in part due to the conclusion of a UEFA directive prohibiting domestic games from being played at the same time as Champions League games.

The final issue really lies around the blackout period and ensuring it is protected. Football has never been more accessible to so called armchair fans. But for many this isn’t enough. There are numerous fans in the lower divisions that follow Premier League teams but can’t afford, or are unable to access, tickets to see their team. Instead they pay to watch lower league and non league teams.

The aim of the blackout was to always protect smaller clubs, who have a small section of fans that may be inclined to watch their Premier League on TV if available. This new deal may be the first step is assessing if watching games live at home reduces attendances. Three hour round trips from Cardiff to watch midweek home games was never my favourite part of my season ticket, but I’m not sure I would have passed it up to watch at home. We will soon see how many other fans feel that way.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

It seems hard to believe that just 12 months ago the hot topics were Charlton’s off field issues (which they still have), would Middlesbrough go up as champions (not quite) and would Derby County choke again (they did)?

Football fans like to predict, it is a way to show off what we know. Unfortunately we often forget one simple thing; football is unpredictable. In my case, my ability to predict doesn’t seem to reach even one second into the future.

That aside, I am going to start the year with yet one more try (at some point I have to get something right) and look at who will be having a good or bad 2017. When predictions aren’t your strong suite, it is probably best to start with the sure things. So the team likely to be having a pretty bad 2017 are unsurprisingly Rotherham United. There is very little to say that hasn’t already been said, but not even a Boxing Day win over relegation rivals Wigan Athletic could do much to help. In fact, all the win did is provide a chance at finishing off the foot of the table.

In the same vein it seems unlikely that Wigan will see any of the highs that they enjoyed last year, thanks to topping the League One table. A change of manager in November hasn’t changed much on the pitch and this year will almost certainly see them make a quick return back to League One. In the first of the less certain predictions, I see Burton Albion also making the return with them. This isn’t based just on their current squad and recent struggles, but also on manager Nigel Clough’s suggestion they need to spend big in January. That rarely helps fend off relegation.

Despite spending all of the season in the bottom three, I believe Blackburn Rovers will avoid the drop. Their ability to score is a real asset in staying up, if they can just plug the hole in their defence they should be safe. That said, I still see this year being much of the same for them with off-field issues still plaguing the club. With the Venky’s showing no signs of leaving, and the FA/Football League showing they have no interest in dealing with poor ownership, fan unrest will continue into 2018. I very much doubt they would be able to survive a second year in this state.

Just two weeks ago, when I planned this article, I saw the next part of this being very easy. Thanks to Newcastle United and a slight blip in form, I am actually going to have to go out on a limb. Now, with a two point lead and a game in hand, it looks like Brighton and Hove Albion are the safe bet for automatic promotion. Brighton haven’t lost in the league since Newcastle beat them at the end of August, and they are showing no signs of slowing form.

While 2016 may have been a mixed year that ultimately saw the Seagulls miss promotion, this year will be even better for them. What awaits them after promotion will depend on how they can improve their squad. Failure to invest in the right way, or attempting to completely overhaul their team, could result in a 2018 relegation.

As for United, they will almost certainly join them in the Premier League. Even though Reading are clipping at their heels, a six point difference and breath taking goal difference should see them safe, although they will probably have to settle for second spot. The playoff race may still be very tight, but I can see Reading finishing in the top six whilst failing to win promotion (this is an easy prediction for any Reading fan, just look at our previous playoff results).

Good and bad years aren’t always defined by promotion or relegation. I can easily predict that Barnsley will be having another good year, as they follow up on last season’s promotion with a very comfortable mid-table finish. Fulham will also see 2017 as a very good year as they finally recover from their relegation a few years ago. They won’t get a top six finish this year, but they should start 2018 in that place.

One team that probably isn’t thrilled to be ending the year still in the Championship are Cardiff City. They have somehow managed to switch from a team that finished just outside the playoffs to one battling at the other end of the table. They will be hoping that Neil Warnock can give them something to cheer about, but despite his talking, I just don’t see him pushing them to promotion. One thing I can predict; he will be spending in January.

Hull City might not yet be a Championship club, but after the sacking of manager Phelan they will be by the time 2018 starts. And if they want to avoid making this year one to really forget, the next managerial appointment is vital. As a club, they know better than most how vital a good start is in the Championship if you really want to get a quick promotion.

Finally, a few quickies to finish off; QPR and Nottingham Forest will change manager again, Ipswich Town will spend no money and Cellino will say something ridiculous. So with that, you can just sit back and enjoy the rest of the season, just promise to look surprised at the end of the year. Let me know your predictions for 2017.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

Fans hoping that 2017 would be a nice change from the previous two crazy years in the Championship are already disappointed. 

Not even a full month in and this year is starting much like the last one ended; with owners and managers still making all the headlines. I actually debated a different theme last week but, as this is supposed to inform about the latest news, I really have no choice.

There are three main components of any football team once you exclude the fans (don’t worry I will get to them later), and that is the players, manager and owner. When they work well together they can achieve the unthinkable and turn an average Football League side into one capable to fighting to be in the top division. When they go wrong, you’re left with any number of teams struggling at the moment, especially Nottingham Forest.

Whenever there is a string of poor results leading to a managers sacking, it is usually accepted that the manager is at fault. But is it always that simple? Everyone remembers Chelsea players underperforming to remove a manager, and I’m sure it goes on more than you think. Players are people (believe it or not) and they are capable of thinking and adapting without someone yelling at them on the sideline, and as such they must bear some of the responsibility when things aren’t going well.

There is also the one unwritten truth that most fans forget; the players aren’t usually fans of the club they are playing for. The further down the leagues you go the more true this becomes. Players want to play and need to get paid, therefore they will pay for whatever team is willing to give them the opportunity to achieve both.

If you are a top player, and can have your pick of clubs, it’s more likely you can play for your boyhood club that also happens to be in the top four. Beyond that and players are playing for their career. Sure, given long enough many players will become very fond of the teams they are playing for, they may even drop in a ‘we’ or two when talking about the club years later, but it really isn’t the same.

Next on the chain is the manager. It almost makes sense that failure on the pitch equals instant sacking. But I did say ‘almost’ and how we define failure seems to be becoming a little hazier. In previous years it would have been a failure to finish in the playoffs for the past two to three years, or taking a club expected to be pushing for promotion into the relegation zone. Now it seems to be no win in ten games, or five losses on the bounce.

On paper the Nottingham Forest sacking manager Philippe Montanier after Saturday’s game wasn’t really a huge surprise. They now sit two places above the relegation zone, with one draw in the last six games and a goal against column that is catching up with Rotherham United’s at an alarming rate. However, when you start looking at the bigger picture, things aren’t as clear.

Montanier took over just seven months ago, after Forest had endured another painful season, so was anything other than a relegation battle really expected? Next up he started the season with a star youth player and a director of football. Oliver Burke was gone days before the window shut, leaving no time to replace him, and director of football Pedro Periera left three months ago.

If on field issues aren’t the players fault, and aren’t the managers fault, then only one thing is left, and that’s the owners. It is no coincidence that the increase in rapid firings has coincided with an increase in the number of new foreign owners, many of which have never had anything to do with English football. Obviously not every issue is owner related, and some have proved a real worth to the League, but sadly some have been disastrous.

Forest thought their prayers had been answered when Fawaz Al-Hasawi took over in 2012. But his stay at the club has quickly turned into a nightmare the fans can’t end. Just 24 hours before Montanier’s sacking it was announced that a proposed takeover by an American investor had fallen through. If rumours are to be believed, the issues were very much from the selling end, leaving fans and players with little idea what the future holds.

Fans don’t always come out of manager sackings smelling of roses. Obviously booing in the case of Forest and Blackburn Rovers this season they are just trying to do the best for their club and all dissatisfaction is aimed directly at the owners, but this isn’t always the case. Expectations from fans have become completely unrealistic, and there now seems to be an unwritten rule that if you are in the Championship and not top of the table, the club is doing something wrong.

Managing fan expectations is becoming harder and harder. You have teams like Nottingham Forest, Derby County and to a lesser extent those like Preston North End (historically one of the more successful teams in English Football) who are now sat in the Championship. But after spending a few seasons far outside the top flight fans may need to shift their levels of belief just a tad.

So next time you start booing the manager, think if it really is right? Or have you set your expectations a little far from reality.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

After a few weeks of flying under the radar, it seems Aston Villa were once again making the headlines as the transfer window slammed shut. 

Transfer deadline day is normally a chaotic affair, but add in half the teams in the Championship playing as the window closed, and it became something else. Feeds were full of goal announcements intertwined with last minute moves, and some very big money transfers.

Aston Villa’s transfer dealings, in particular, have caught the eye. Not happy with their excessive spending in the last window, they have continued to throw money at the issue of getting out of the Championship fast. Obviously Villa do have an advantage over almost all of the division, namely nice parachute payments to soften any spending. But this season’s payment was spent in window number one and, should they fail to get promoted, they will have to be aware of financial fair play rules.

Just hours before the window shut, Aston Villa forked out £12 ($15) million for Brentford striker Scott Hogan. Spending £12 millions in a single season is big news for any Championship club, even one that has the bonus of the parachute payments, but this isn’t their only signing to reach over the £10 ($12) million mark. In fact, it isn’t even the first striker they have signed over that mark, and now they have spent over £40 ($50) million on just strikers in the 2016/17 season.

I am well aware that, like so many transfers, the fee mentioned doesn’t tell the whole story. This is the highest amount, should all the add-ons be paid. But it isn’t easy to find the pre-add on prices, so just knock a million or two off these prices if it makes you feel better. Striker Jonathan Kodjia joined Villa from Bristol City in the summer for £15 ($19) million, and so far he seems to be giving a good return on his gigantic fee. With 9 goals already in 23 appearances, he is on track to be valued at one million per goal by the end of the season.

Next in the big money striker department is Ross McCormack, the player that has been traded for £23 ($29) million total in the last two years, also signed for Villa at the start of the season, forming the divisions most expensive strike force. Unlike Kodjia, McCormack has been unable to replicate his previous form, and Hogan’s arrival has seen him sent out on loan to Nottingham Forest.

The move was unsurprising after McCorack was fined earlier in the month for repeatedly missing training and being, in Steve Bruce’s words, a long way off match fitness. His three goals so far also probably aren’t helping matters. The fact Forest have signed him, albeit on loan, really shows the position they are in.

Looking around the division, Villa weren’t the only team spending big money. After a relatively quiet summer, where incoming funds were greater than out going, Norwich City spent £7 million on Wigan Athletic winger Yanic Wildschut. Wildschut had already requested a transfer from the Latics after they blocked multiple bids, so his departure was hardly a surprise.

In deadline day’s ‘just how many players did they sign today’ category there is one clear winner. Step forward Wigan Athletic and the eight players that joined the club. When you are faced with relegation you can either make the best of what you have and try to make a few adjustments, or go for all out panic. It’s easy to see which path Wigan have taken. It isn’t even the sheer number of players that they have signed, more the fact that few of them are particularly inspiring signings.

Any Reading fan around in the late 90’s will remember a certain deadline day (back when there was just one a year), with the club sitting in a similar position at the wrong end of the table. Then manager Tommy Burns decided to (unsuccessfully) try and stave off relegation to the third tier with seven signings on the last day. Wigan fans will be hoping that extra player makes all the difference, as Reading ended the season still in the relegation zone.

Not every team in the division was busy recruiting new blood. With promotion looking more and more like a formality, both Brighton and Hove Albion and Newcastle United decided that less really is more. Newcastle made such whole scale changes over the summer it really isn’t surprising they have chosen to stick with the squad they have. Trying to meld all the players into a cohesive unit once is hard, and what they have obviously is working.

For Brighton, they did make a few minor changes turning Glenn Murray’s loan into a permanent deal,  and adding a little fire power with Arsenal striker Chuba Akpom, who has signed on loan till the end of the season.  Akpom is no stranger to the Championship, after spending last season on loan at eventual Play-off winners Hull City. His goal scoring record for club might not stand out, but he has impressed at previous loan clubs and his record for England youth teams is very impressive.

Not everyone had a good, stress free day, but of Sheffield Wednesday’s last minute attempt to sign Jordan Rhodes just about went through in time. This will be a big boost to Wednesday’s team as they look to push on to the play offs.

With the window shut and the money spent, all is now set for the end of season push. From big changes and slight tweeks everyone is now stuck with what they have, well at least until the ‘emergency’ loan window opens.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

One of the greatest things about lower league football is that size and history really don’t matter. The leagues are made up of a good mix of teams that have won multiple trophies, to those whose only claim to fame is the odd giant killing in the cup. 

Take the Championship, with teams range from Newcastle Utd to Burton Albion, both in terms of history and stadium capacity. A great diversity of teams also means that you have a great number of ‘medicore teams’ fighting in the division, those who have yo-yo’d more than most.

Someone at Trinity Mirror with far too much time on their hands went out to prove just that and calculate which team is the most mediocre one in all the leagues. This involved looking at the finishing positions of every one of the 92 professional teams since the league expanded in 1958, and unsurprisingly seven of the ten most average teams are currently in the Championship.

According to the study results the most average side since 1958 is Hull City, with a standing of 47.1, just 0.6 away from the midway point of 46.5. Even though Hull are currently a Premier League side, they are looking quite likely to make a quick return to the Championship in the next few months, so it feels ok to include them in this. In fact, Hull are actually more of a new entry to the mediocre charts, with their results over the past few seasons cancelling out the previous years in the middle and lower divisions.

Next up, 0.5 back are Brighton and Hove Albion and Luton Town, two teams with varying fortunes lately.. Whilst Luton are currently challenging to get out of League Two after a few seasons of poor money management and costly fines, Brighton are looking a sure thing for promotion to the top tier and a move further away from years of mediocrity. Whilst Albion did manage a few years in the top division in the 80’s this would be their first time in the Premier League after spending  the last six years in the Championship.

Sitting 0.1 and 0.2 behind Luton Town, with an average placing of 45.3 and 45.2 are the surprise entries Huddersfield Town and Preston North End. Anyone who knows anything about early Football knows that these were two of the teams to beat. In fact Preston were the first and second winners of the League. Sadly, this study only looked at performances since 1958, and since then North End have spent almost all of their time in the middle two divisions, hence their lower ranking.

Like Preston, Huddersfield Town’s greatest glory also comes in the time before the 1958 cut off. But unlike Preston, Huddersfield actually have a very good shot at returning to the Top Flight this season. Currently they sit in third place as the in-form team of the division. Win their game in hand, and Saturday’s game with League leaders Newcastle United, and they may yet have a chance at one of those automatic promotion spots.

Blackpool are next up in the mediocre chart, although with recent off-field issues and fan discontent, they probably will not be in that position for long. Closely behind Blackpool with a position of 44.7 are Cardiff City. A chart of Cardiff’s previous league positions is amazing, as they basically went all the way down through the divisions for 20 years, followed by the reverse for 20 years, finally culminating in their one season in the Premier League. With the club finally in a stable position, and issues with owner Vincent Tan resolved, it seems unlikely they will be repeating their nose dive any time soon.

Both Wigan Athletic and Reading are next in the table with the same position of 48.3. It’s actually very appropriate that these teams currently have the same mediocre rating, as both will have relied on more recent history to elevate up the rankings. These are two teams that have very ‘nothing’ histories, with almost all of the time spent in the bottom two divisions. Recently, however, things have been a little different, with both teams experiencing their first seasons in the top tier, combined with extended time in the Championship.

Sadly, for Wigan at least, their Championship story looks likely to take a hiatus this season, with Athletic looking likely to make a return to League One. Reading on the other hand look unlikely to leave the division by any means. They are safe from relegation, but a few poor results against promotion rivals means an exit up looks just as unlikely.

The final team in the top 10 most mediocre teams is Barnsley, coming in at 49.1. Barnsley are another surprise entry, until you go back over their previous seasons. Whilst they have spent very little of the past few decades in the top division, and therefore avoided most press coverage, they have also spent very little of it outside the middle two divisions, making them a true average side.

Whilst this might all be a bit of fun, there is one interesting fact to come out of these figures. Of those seven Championship teams mentioned, five of them have results over the past ten to 15 years to thank for their new found positions. I remember having a discussion with a friend who said that teams always end up where they have spent most of their time, and it’s nice to see that isn’t always true. Of course all of this means little. Fans know and are proud of whatever achievements their teams have had over the years, however big and small.

Listen to Paula’s latest Championship podcast at Premier Punditry.

By Paula Marcus

Nottingham Forest and Derby County share one of the fiercest rivalries in Football and, since 2007, the Brian Clough Trophy has been presented to the winner of each derby match, in memory of the man who famously managed both teams. But over the past few seasons, despite both teams having illustrious histories, that is the closest that either team has come to a trophy.

When the Brian Clough Trophy is contested this weekend, both teams will have new men at the helm after they each sacked their managers in the past week citing poor performances. What is more disturbing is that this is the fifth time in a row that both teams have had a new manager for the derby game. Just let that sink in. Since January 2015 there have been over ten different managers between the two clubs.

So what has gone wrong at these two clubs and who is to blame for the endless manager conveyer belt? For both these clubs, the issues seem to arise from a failure to make a quick return to the hallowed ground of the Premier League and, over the past few season, things just seem to be going from bad to worse.

Starting with Forest, it seems a lot of their issues started with the sudden death of previous owner Nigel Doughty. With the club suffering from severe financial uncertainly, the sale of the club to Fawaz Al-Hasawi was supposed to enable them to fight once again for promotion. However, things have so far not gone to plan and off field turmoil has been replaced by on field instability, with excessive manager changes and fan protests a sign of the times.

The fact that fans are disillusioned with how Al-Hasawi is running the club is hardly surprising. Since he purchased Forest, the team has faced winding up petitions and transfer embargoes for breaching the leagues Financial Fair Play rules, all while attempting to avoid relegation to League One. Things reached a peak in January when a proposed takeover deal fell through, despite months of negotiations.

Derby County’s problems are more to do with an owner who wants to micromanage the team. If you thought that hands on owners were going to end after Dave Whelan stepped down from Wigan Athletic, Mel Morris is here to make you think again. A poor performance in February 2016 led to Morris entering the dressing room to ‘rant’ at the players and clashed with managers have been common.

The fact that Morris is after immediate success is the number one issue, and it is also completely unrealistic. Whilst he might be quick to put all the blame on the manager, it might be time to start looking elsewhere. With four managers in a year and a half, something is obviously very wrong. Firstly he might want to have a quick look at his hiring process (something he might have finally done, but more on that later). Re-hiring a manager you sacked just over a year ago is beyond crazy.

Then there are the players. McClaren was apparently planning to overhaul the dressing room in the summer, aware that some players were maybe not committed to their manager. With so much instability at the club it’s hardly surprising the players are having some issues, but they still need to take some of the blame. It had been mentioned over the past few weeks that it appeared McClaren had lost the dressing room; this sacking seems to confirm it.

With so much managerial turnover at these clubs, it’s almost amazing they can find anyone willing (or desperate) enough to take the job. But both clubs will present their new men in the dugout Saturday. For Nottingham Forest, this new man is former Rangers manager Mark Warburton. More importantly, Warburton was also the man that masterminded Brentford’s rise from League One to Championship playoffs. He certainly has a good understanding of what is needed at this level and his appointment could be the spark Forest need to avoid relegation.

As for Derby County, their new appointment is equally astute. It seems Al-Hasawi might have finally found a manager that has a chance of making it to a full year in charge. Gary Rowett performed miracles at Birmingham City, and was unlucky to be sacked after a change in ownership. He also seems fully aware of what he has gotten himself into. It appears he has set some ground rules with Morris and made it clear he is the manager. Whether Morris will listen or not remains to be seen, but at least it is a good start.

Hopefully, for both Forest and County fans, their owners will finally realise one of the more important lessons in football; stability is key. Over the past few seasons, the clubs that have been the most successful have been the most stable. A different manager every week will always make it hard for you to do well, whether it’s trying to prevent relegation, like Forest, or Derby’s endless attempts to win promotion.

Finally both teams seem to have managers that are more than capable of achieving good things in this division. The big question is, will either of them get the time?